IAPA Forecasting Special Interest Group

[admin]

Formation of the IAPA Forecasting Special Interest Group (FSIG)

"Forecasting is a vital part of the strategic and tactical management of most organisations, regularly warranting the attention of "C" suite executives and boards. It is a major regulatory requirement for some industries, the difference between loss and profit in many, and a matter of survival on the securities trading floor. Arguably, all decision making turns on forecasts of feasible scenarios and likely outcomes--whether acknowledged formally or conducted implicitly.

As a key analytics activity, forecasting can require much time, draw on diverse skills, and rely on expensive software. It can also be counterproductiveâ€"comprising arcane processes poorly grounded in quantitative principles, tying up whole teams, and squandering resources.

The IAPA stands uniquely positioned to take a leadership role in this area due to our combination of advanced quantitative and analytical skills with practical business knowledge. While reliance on forecasting is ubiquitous, its disciplined applicationâ€"with rigour, objectivity and numeracy--is far from universal. Many organisations neglect to clearly delineate forecasting from goal setting, fail to systematically examine their historical forecasting performance, resist assigning accountability, and lack the basic empirical literacy required to effectively employ available tools.

Powerful statistical, artificial intelligence and collective intelligence/tacit mining techniques exist, and can significantly increase forecasting accuracy. More critically, and irrespective of which methods are employed, IAPA members are qualified, recognised and capable of translating these gains into measurable and communicable business value.

It therefore gives me great pleasure to announce the creation of the IAPA Forecasting Special Interest Group (IAPA FSIG), a body dedicated to bringing together practitioners of all forms of forecasting who are interested in improving and extending their capabilities, whether statistical or judgment based.

The purpose of the group will be to put IAPA forecasting professionals in touch with each other and with members of other professions who have a stake and an interest in better forecasting. The group will seek to become the central point of reference for the business community with respect to forecasting quality and practice.

The group will network and share knowledge as an online community, and via regular events."

Eugene Dubossarsky

As a first step, those interested in participating in the group can contact Dr Eugene Dubossarsky FIAPA at iapaforecasting@presciient.com

mailto:forecasting@presciient.com