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Comment on The real reasons why prediction markets are accurate. ? [LINK] by Paul Hew

Comment on The real reasons why prediction markets are accurate. ? [LINK] by Paul Hew

This is a discussion on Comment on The real reasons why prediction markets are accurate. ? [LINK] by Paul Hew within the Prediction Markets News Feeds forums, part of the Forecasting Special Interest Group category; I thought this was a key quote: “It is impossible to quantify the accuracy rate of prediction markets in general…” Over time, it may be possible to determine the accuracy ...

11th January 2012, 05:18 AM	#1
admin Administrator Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 15,957 Blog Entries: 7	Comment on The real reasons why prediction markets are accurate. ? [LINK] by Paul Hew I thought this was a key quote: “It is impossible to quantify the accuracy rate of prediction markets in general…” Over time, it may be possible to determine the accuracy of a group of similar prediction markets (based on their calibration), but he is definitely correct to say that it is impossible to determine the accuracy of prediction markets in general. Should be interesting to see what he writes, given that most prediction market researchers have disappeared. More Midas Oracle Group Blog Comments...

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